During the US session, the ADP’s employment change report could influence the Fed rate path and US dollar demand. Economists expect the ADP to report employment to rise 85k in June, up from 37k in May.
A stronger-than-expected reading would point to improving labor market conditions, potentially lifting wage growth. Higher wages may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation, sending USD/JPY toward 145 and the 50-day EMA. In contrast, a weaker report could fuel speculation about multiple H2 2025 Fed rate cuts, pushing the pair toward 142.5.
Investors should also track Fed commentary. Rising calls for rate cuts would pressure USD/JPY.
