Increasing geopolitical tensions pressured AUD/USD early in the June 13 session. Reports of Israel carrying out military strikes on Iran triggered a flight to safety, weighing on the Aussie dollar.
Escalating conflict in the Middle East could spike oil prices, stoke inflation, and heighten global economic uncertainty. Commodity currencies typically come under selling pressure as economic uncertainties develop. WTI Crude soared 6.46% to $71.715 in morning trading.
The AUD/USD pair dropped 0.83% to $0.64785 as news of the strikes broke. An Iranian retaliation could intensify selling pressure, while a de-escalation may support AUD/USD recovery.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Rising geopolitical tensions or dovish RBA commentary may drag AUD/USD below $0.6450 toward the 200-day and 50-day EMAs.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Sentiment to Steer Near-Term Action
Later today, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey will affect AUD/USD trends via US-Aussie interest rate differentials.
Rising consumer sentiment could signal a more hawkish Fed stance, widening rate differentials. A wider rate differential in favor of the US dollar may pull AUD/USD below $0.6450, exposing the EMAs. Conversely, a softer consumer sentiment reading may narrow the rate differential, driving AUD/USD above $0.65.
