Japan’s core inflation ticked up to 3.2% in March, typically pressuring the BoJ to consider policy tightening.
Later in the US session, FOMC members’ commentary requires consideration after the market’s reaction to Powell’s recent warnings. Hawkish forward guidance supporting a pause in rate cuts could send the USD/JPY pair toward 145. Conversely, calls for multiple rate cuts to bolster the US economy may drag the pair toward the 140.309 support level.
Tariff developments also warrant close monitoring. Fresh US tariff threats and a lack of progress in trade negotiations may drive safe-haven demand, weighing on the USD/JPY. A softer US stance, however, could support risk sentiment and curb demand for the Yen.
Potential USD/JPY Moves
Bullish US dollar Scenario: Softer US tariffs or hawkish Fed commentary could drive the USD/JPY pair toward 145.
Bearish US dollar Scenario: Dovish Fed guidance or fresh tariff threats may send the pair toward the 140.309 support level.
