EURUSD confirmed another higher low at 1.1192 last week but the market needs a more aggressive rally above the 1.1411 top to resume confidence on the uptrend which started from the 1.1106 bottom. The short-term risk is currently looking neutral-to-positive as the RSI is trying to hold strength above the 50 level, while the Stochastics are positively sloped below the 80 overbought mark.
Immediate resistance to additional upside corrections could be detected around 1.1283, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1569-1.1106 bearish wave and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) are located. A decisive close above the 200-day SMA and a break of the 50% Fibonacci of 1.1337 could push for further buying, probably until the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.1392.
On the way down, the bears would likely pause near the 50-day SMA before heading towards the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.1215. Traders could comfortably raise selling volumes under the 1.1180 mark, sending the price down to the 2-year low of 1.1106 reached in late-May.
Meanwhile in the medium-term window, EURUSD is in a range with a low boundary at 1.1105 and an upper boundary at 1.1450. The rising 50-day SMA and the falling 200-day SMA, however, increase hopes for a brighter outlook.
In brief, EURUSD is facing a neutral-to-positive bias in the short-term, while in the medium-term conditions remain neutral.
Origin: XM
