Monday morning: the Aussie hints at a sell, while the Loonie is frozen in anticipation. The main rule today is not to guess, but to wait for a pullback and confirmation from key levels. Oil is rising, geopolitical tensions are heating up, yet the technical setups for some currencies are becoming clear. The Australian dollar is giving a clear sell signal. The Loonie is hanging by a thread — a breakdown could happen any moment. The Euro and Pound have halted their decline, but lack momentum for now.What Traders Are Falling For Many see the dollar holding firm and rush to buy everything in sight. This is a mistake: Friday’s daily profile closed bearish, and there’s no upward momentum. Others are shorting the Euro without noticing that the decline has already stalled in a target zone. The most dangerous move is entering without a clear pullback to the daily balance. It’s better to wait for the price to return to the level before taking action.
AUD/USD: Sell from the Daily Balance The Aussie has formed a downward impulse. The daily balance sits at 0.71522. This is the first entry point. Target: 0.7090. I’m placing the stop-loss behind the 1/4 margin zone, around 0.7180. Risk per trade is half the usual size because the impulse formed after a target zone breakout. If the price pulls back to 0.71522 and shows weakness, I’ll enter short. If it drops without a pullback, the trade is invalid. We wait for the correction.
USD/CAD: Sell After the Impulse The Loonie froze in the 1/4 target zone back on Friday. The level has been tested three times but not broken. The daily balance and volume point to 1.37535. Right now, we’re waiting for a 1/8 impulse. Once it forms and the price retests 1.37535, I’ll go short. Target: 1.37239. Stop: behind the zone, around 1.3770.
If the impulse doesn’t materialize, the trade is off. This is the most interesting instrument today, but only after confirmation.
EUR/USD: Buy After Breakout The Euro halted its decline on Friday around 1.1610-1.1620. The daily balance is at 1.16215. Now we’re waiting for a breakout of the 1/8 zone. As soon as the price breaks through 1.1630-1.1640 and then pulls back to the daily balance, I’ll look to buy. First target: 1.1680 (1/4 zone). Stop: below yesterday’s low, around 1.1590. If the breakout doesn’t happen, the trade is canceled. Patience is more important than speed here.
GBP/USD: Quick Long in Question The Pound has also stopped falling. The daily balance sits at 1.33207. The daily profile has formed a cluster at 1.3345. Theoretically, one could try a quick long up to this level: stop-loss at a 1:1 ratio to the target. But I’d think twice: there are more interesting setups (the Aussie, the Loonie). So I’m skipping the Brit.
What’s Next Monday is a time to wait, not to jump headfirst into the fray. The main stories today are the Aussie sell and preparing for the Loonie short. The Euro also offers an opportunity, but only after a confirmed breakout. We’re watching geopolitics, but never forget: levels matter more than headlines.
