The European currency is once again under pressure: 1.15213, down 0.6% overnight. The reason is Trump’s nighttime address, where he threatened Iran with a “stone age” and confirmed the continuation of military operations. The dollar received a dose of geopolitical premium, while the euro took another hit. Brent oil surged to $105.74 (+7.3%), which is like a bucket of cold water for energy-dependent Europe. Today at 15:30 MSK, U.S. unemployment claims will be released (forecast 212K). If the numbers turn out strong, the dollar will strengthen, and the euro may test 1.1500. If they are weak, a bounce to 1.1550 is possible. Europe is on holiday today (Maundy Thursday), so all attention is on U.S. statistics and geopolitics.
Key Levels for EUR/USD on April 2
Current price – 1.15213 (pullback from highs)
Nearest resistance – 1.1550 / 1.1580 (upper boundaries for a bounce)
Key support – 1.1500 (psychological level)
Next support – 1.1460 / 1.1415 (March lows)
VAH – 1.1550 (upper boundary of yesterday’s value zone)
VAL – 1.1500 (lower boundary of yesterday’s value zone)
What to Expect Today
Geopolitics Remains the Main Driver
Trump’s nighttime address confirmed that the conflict in the Middle East will not be resolved quickly. The president stated that goals are close to completion but warned of a potential increase in pressure in the coming 2-3 weeks. This has revived demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Any new escalation (new strikes, statements) will increase pressure on the euro.
U.S. Claims Data (15:30 MSK)
Forecast: 212K. If claims come in below 210K (strong labor market), the dollar will strengthen, and the euro may test 1.1500 and lower. If claims rise above 220K (weak labor market), the dollar will weaken, and the pair will have a chance to bounce back to 1.1550–1.1580.
Tomorrow’s NFP — Key Risk
Markets are already shifting focus to Friday’s U.S. employment report (NFP). Forecast: +60K compared to -92K in February. Strong data will bolster the dollar and push the euro to new lows, while weak data will provide the pair with a temporary reprieve.
What Traders Are Looking for Right Now
Many see the euro’s pullback and jump into shorts right now, hoping for a break below 1.1500. However, they do not take into account that claims might be weak, and then the pair could sharply reverse upward, triggering stops. Others, on the contrary, are trying to buy the bounce without waiting for the numbers, risking getting caught in a continuation of the fall if the data turn out strong. The most dangerous thing right now is opening positions before the statistics are published.
Scenarios and Trading Plan Based on Market Profile
Bearish (fall): claims
Bullish (bounce): claims > 220K, absence of escalation. Probability ~40%. Target EUR/USD: bounce to 1.1550–1.1580.
Conclusions
The euro remains under pressure due to the strengthening dollar after Trump’s tough rhetoric and high oil prices. Today’s claims could either strengthen the bearish trend (break below 1.1500) or give the pair a short-term reprieve (bounce to 1.1550–1.1580). The main event of the week is tomorrow’s NFP, which will determine the further trajectory.
