Meanwhile, economic indicators from China will influence AUD/USD trends, with inflation and trade data in focus. While inflation trends require consideration, reflecting consumption trends, trade data will likely have more impact.
China accounts for one-third of Aussie exports. Given Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50%, softer demand from China and slower global exports may impact the Aussie economy and the RBA rate path. A more dovish RBA stance could send AUD/USD toward $0.645 and the 200-day EMA. Conversely, better-than-expected trade data may push the pair above the June 5 high of $0.65377, bringing $0.6550 into sight.
Later today, US consumer inflation expectations could impact US-Aussie interest rate differentials and AUD/USD. A higher-than-expected reading would dampen Fed rate cut bets and widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A wider rate differential may drag AUD/USD below $0.6450 toward the 200-day EMA.
Conversely, a softer print could narrow the rate differential and drive AUD/USD toward $0.6550.
Beyond the economic data, trade headlines will continue to influence price trends.
