AUD/USD reacts to Aussie GDP; slower growth may fuel RBA rate cut bets and push the pair below $0.64 support.
Also scheduled for June 4, Aussie GDP numbers will influence the RBA rate path and AUD/USD trends. Economists forecast the economy to expand 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, slowing from 0.6% growth in the previous quarter.
Slower-than-expected growth may bolster bets on multiple RBA rate cuts, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward $0.64. Conversely, a higher GDP print could signal a less dovish RBA rate path, driving the pair toward $0.65 and the May 26 high of $0.65370.
During May’s RBA press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted potential risks to the Aussie economy, stating:
“The Australian labor market and household spending remain the most significant domestic risks.”
Later today, US services sector and labor market data will affect US-Aussie interest rate differentials and AUD/USD. Better-than-expected labor market and services sector data would likely widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A widening rate differential may pull AUD/USD below the 200-day EMA and $0.64. Increased selling pressure could potentially bring the $0.63623 support level into play.
Conversely, softer data may narrow the rate differential and drive AUD/USD above $0.65 toward $0.65370.
Beyond the economic data, trade developments and Fed signals will continue to drive price volatility.
