USD/JPY Daily Outlook: Retail Sales and Fed in Focus
Later in the US session, US retail sales figures will influence June Fed rate cut bets. Economists expect a 1.4% monthly increase in March after a 0.2% rise in February.
A sharper increase could fuel demand-driven inflation, ease recession fears, and support a less dovish Fed rate path. In this scenario, the USD/JPY pair could move toward 145, a crucial resistance level.
On the other hand, an unexpected drop in retail sales may raise recession fears, support calls for multiple Fed rate cuts, and send the pair toward the 140.309 support level.
Beyond the data, tariff-related headlines and Fed commentary will influence US dollar demand. Any dovish signals from FOMC members or renewed trade tensions could weigh on the dollar.
Potential USD/JPY Moves:
Bullish US dollar Scenario: Strong retail sales, softer US tariff rhetoric, or hawkish Fed commentary could drive the USD/JPY pair toward 145.
Bearish US dollar Scenario: Weak retail sales, dovish Fed signals, or worsening trade tensions may push the pair toward the 140.309 support level.
