The EUR/USD broke below the July 6th low today and is 29 pips below it.
The bears hope they can get today to close far below the July 6th low, increasing the odds of lower prices.
The bulls will see a bear breakout below a bear channel today. They will expect the market to reverse up within a few bars. The problem with this argument is that the channel down is tight, which lowers the probability of bulls buying.
There is a possible negative gap between the August 3rd low and the August 22nd high, which may lead to a measured move down.
It is possible the market has to get down to the June 1st low before buyers come in. Right now, traders will pay attention to the close of today. The bears are hopeful it will close on its low, which would signify traders selling into the bar’s close.
The bulls want the opposite and are hopeful that it forms a tail below the bar today and forms a close near its midpoint.
This would signify profit taking into the close and a lack of urgency to sell.
