Русский
The GBP/USD pair showed moderate gains on Wednesday, testing the 1.2800 level amid a recovery of positive sentiment in global markets. Such a shift was due to another decision of the US administration to temporarily suspend the implementation of its tough tariff policy. In particular, it announced a 90-day postponement of the introduction of new duties, despite the previously stated principle of “no exceptions, no postponements”.
Global stock and currency markets reacted positively, but the growth momentum for the British pound remained limited. GBP/USD added only about 0.3 percent despite a general improvement in the investment climate. At the same time, the 10% “retaliatory” tariffs announced earlier by President Donald Trump remain in place. The White House continues to give key trading partners time to discuss alternative solutions that could exclude them from the restrictive measures. It is worth noting that tariffs on Chinese goods were increased to 125% in response to Beijing’s actions imposing 84% duties on US exports, which hit the US agricultural sector particularly hard.
Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps have also been adjusted. Market participants trading interest rate derivatives are now estimating the likelihood of a cumulative 75 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of 2025. While the baseline scenario still assumes one 25 bps cut as early as June, JPMorgan analysts note the high probability of the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance until at least early fall, given the ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
Key macroeconomic publications from the USA remain in the center of attention. On Thursday, data on the consumer price index (CPI) are expected, and on Friday – the publication of the producer price index (PPI), as well as the results of the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey. These data will be the final and crucial block of macroeconomic statistics covering the “pre-tariff” period of 2025. Their results will have a significant impact on market participants’ further expectations regarding economic dynamics in the US in the second half of the year.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2840, SL 1.2770, TP 1.2930
Origin: FreshForex
