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Tariff Shock, Supply Surge, and EIA Build Slam Prices
Light crude oil futures collapsed over 10% last week, closing Friday at $61.99—the lowest since early 2021—driven by deepening trade tensions, a surprise OPEC+ supply increase, and a major U.S. crude inventory build that cemented the bearish turn. WTI lost $7.37 on the week, with intraday lows touching $60.45 as traders dumped risk ahead of a global demand downgrade.
OPEC+ Ramps Up Supply Despite Demand Risks
OPEC+ intensified bearish pressure by pulling forward a planned production increase. The group will now return 411,000 bpd to the market in May—triple the previously expected 135,000 bpd. This decision landed just as recession fears escalated and inventories rose, leading traders to question whether the alliance is misjudging demand conditions.
Adding to the pressure, a Russian court decision allowed Kazakhstan’s CPC terminal to stay online, removing a potential supply risk and pushing the market further into oversupply territory.
Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Outlook Deepens Below $62
With a growing inventory surplus, deteriorating demand signals, and fresh barrels from OPEC+, crude’s near-term outlook remains decisively bearish. Unless tariffs are rolled back or demand finds unexpected support, WTI looks vulnerable to further declines, with mid-$50s in play. Traders should watch $60 as a critical support line—failure there opens the door to deeper selling.
Technically, we’re in a momentum driven sell-off. These types of breaks usually end when the bearish momentum subsides and traders find value.
The first value zone is $61.37 to $59.31. The second is way down at $53.09, which suggests $59.31 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.
