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AUD/USD set to react to Aussie job data, trade risks and US trade negotiations with key trading partners, including China and Japan.
Turning to AUD/USD, the Aussie labor market will be in focus. Economists expect ANZ-Indeed Job Ads to rise 0.9% month-on-month in March after sliding 1.4% in February.
A rebound in job ads could indicate a tightening labor market and rising wages. Higher wages may fuel inflation, supporting a less dovish RBA rate path. Conversely, a further decline in job ads may impact wages and spending, dampening inflation. A softer inflation outlook would support a more dovish RBA rate path.
While labor market conditions are crucial for the RBA, trade tensions and weakening demand from China and Japan, Australia’s two largest export markets, could overshadow the data.
Trump’s tariffs have intensified global trade uncertainty, fueling speculation about multiple RBA rate cuts and impacting Aussie dollar demand. Given Australia’s trade-to-GDP ratio exceeds 50%, the Aussie dollar remains sensitive to shifts in global trade dynamics.
During the US session, Fed rhetoric will influence AUD/USD. Hawkish commentary, favoring a delay to rate cuts, could widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, favoring the US dollar. A wider rate differential may pull the AUD/USD pair toward the April 4 low of $0.59862.
Conversely, Fed support for multiple rate cuts would narrow the rate differential, supporting a rebound toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.63623 resistance level.
