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Later in the US session, the US labor market will influence market bets on a June Fed rate cut and US dollar demand. Economists expect the ADP to report a 105k increase in employment in March, up from 77k in February.
A higher-than-expected reading would likely lower bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed stance may push the USD/JPY pair toward the 50-day EMA. A break above the 50-day EMA and potentially extend toward the 200-day EMA.
Lower-than-expected employment could fuel concerns over a US recession, supporting multiple Fed rate cut bets. A more dovish Fed stance may send USD/JPY toward the 149.358 resistance level. A drop below this level would signal a fall toward the March 11 low of 146.537.
Outside of economic data, tariff developments and FOMC member commentary will remain key drivers for the pair.
