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GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, having rebounded from the previous session’s losses to reach 1.2910 during Thursday’s Asian trading session. The pair is strengthening as the US dollar remains under pressure from lower Treasury yields: 2-year and 10-year yields are at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Market participants are monitoring upcoming US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims and the final Q4 annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, scheduled for release later today.
However, GBP/USD gains may be constrained due to an escalation in risk-off sentiment and a rise in US trade policy. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25 per cent tariffs on car imports, which will come into effect on April 2, with duty collection starting the following day. However, a one-month delay will be granted for imports of auto parts. This has led to heightened global trade tensions and added uncertainty to the markets.
On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem issued a statement that was critical of the tariff policy, joining other Federal Reserve chiefs in expressing concerns. Musalem warned that the measures are disrupting the US economy, increasing uncertainty and pushing inflation higher.
The release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February showed inflation falling faster than expected, leading to a weakening of the Pound Sterling (GBP). The lower CPI reading has led to speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may be leaning towards easing monetary policy.
The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.9% forecast and down from January’s 3.0%. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile goods, rose by 3.5%, below the anticipated 3.6% and the previous reading of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI increased by 0.4%, following a 0.1% decline in January, falling short of the 0.5% forecast. Inflation in the services sector, a key focus area for the Bank of England, remained steady at 5%.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.2900, SL 1.2970, TP 1.2810
Origin: FreshForex
