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Aussie Dollar: Will the Monthly CPI Indicator Boost RBA Rate Cut Bets?
Turning to AUD/USD, the Monthly CPI indicator will be pivotal for Aussie dollar demand. Economists expect the Aussie inflation rate to hold steady at 2.5% in February.
A softer inflation reading could fuel bets on a June RBA rate cut, possibly dragging the AUD/USD pair below $0.62500 and toward $0.62. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inflationary pressures may temper bets on an H1 2025 RBA rate cut. In this scenario, the AUD/USD could break out above the 50-day EMA, bringing the $0.63623 resistance level into play.
Australian Dollar Daily Outlook: US Manufacturing Sector in View
In the US session, US durable goods orders will influence the US-Aussie interest rate differential.
A sharp drop in durable goods orders could fuel recessionary fears, supporting multiple Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed rate path would narrow the rate differential in favor of the Aussie dollar. In this scenario, the AUD/USD pair could climb above the 50-day EMA to target the $0.63623 resistance level.
Conversely, another spike in orders may signal a resilient demand environment, lowering multiple Fed rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed stance could widen the rate differential in favor of the US dollar, pushing AUD/USD back toward $0.62.
Meanwhile, beyond the data, President Trump’s tariff policies need consideration. Higher tariffs could weigh on global sentiment, creating headwinds for commodity currencies like the Aussie Dollar.
