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Economic data from China will influence near-term AUD/USD trends.
On March 17, Chinese data, including housing prices, industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment figures, will influence market sentiment.
A softer decline in house prices, lower unemployment, and a pickup in retail sales could signal Beijing’s stimulus measures are gaining traction. A more robust Chinese economy may boost demand, supporting Aussie trade terms as China accounts for one-third of Australian exports.
However, a sharper fall in house prices, rising unemployment, and weaker retail sales may cast doubt over Beijing’s 5% GDP target for 2025, weighing on AUD/USD.
Potential AUD/USD trends include:
Bullish Scenario: Upbeat data from China, a de-escalation in the US-China trade war, and fresh stimulus from Beijing may send the AUD/USD pair toward the $0.63623 resistance level.
Bearish Scenario: Weak Chinese data, escalating trade tensions, and underwhelming stimulus efforts could pull the AUD/USD pair below the 50-day EMA toward $0.62.
Australian Dollar Daily Outlook: Retail Sales and Rate Differentials
Later in the US session, US retail sales could influence the US-Aussie interest rate differential.
Stronger-than-expected retail sales may lower Fed rate cut bets, widening the rate differential in favor of the US dollar. This scenario could send AUD/USD below the 50-day EMA, targeting the crucial $0.62 support level.
A further decline in retail sales may boost the chances of multiple Fed rate cuts, narrowing the rate differential. A more dovish Fed rate path could drive the AUD/USD pair toward the $0.63623 resistance level.
