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Shifting to the US, FOMC members’ commentary requires consideration. Members Patrick Harker, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller will speak during Monday’s session.
Reactions to last week’s inflation and retail sales reports will influence US dollar demand. Concerns about elevated inflation and US tariffs could delay Fed rate cuts. Under this scenario, the USD/JPY pair may return to 153, potentially targeting the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Conversely, support for an H1 2025 rate cut, following softer producer prices and retail sales, could drag the pair below the 200-day EMA. A break below the 200-day EMA may allow the bears to target the 150 level.
