Event to pay attention to today:
15:30 EET. USD – Retail Sales
EURUSD:
On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate strengthened, rising seven-tenths of a percentage point to re-enter the 1.0400 range. This gain was influenced by a general weakening of the US dollar, which facilitated inflows amid less severe US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data than anticipated.Investors are currently speculating that the Trump administration’s ongoing ambiguity regarding tariff threats indicates the likelihood of no trade war.
Meanwhile, European economic data released on Thursday aligned with market expectations, offering minimal impact on traders. However, the US PPI data, which exceeded forecasts, helped alleviate investor concerns regarding renewed inflationary pressures. Core inflation for the year ending January stood at 3.6% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing the 3.3% forecast but falling short of the revised 3.7% figure, originally published at 3.5%.
The upcoming release of US Retail Sales will be a key data point for the week, with markets anticipating another strong performance. The monthly retail sales figure is forecast to decline marginally by 0.1%, from the previous reading of 0.4%.In other news, US President Donald Trump has unveiled his latest strategy to boost tax revenues, amid significant cuts in administrative taxes. The concept of ‘reciprocal tariffs’, which involves the imposition of duties on countries that levy tariffs on US goods, is scheduled to be developed in the coming months, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appointed to finalise the details.The timing of additional tariffs remains unclear, and investors view these new tariff threats as unlikely, reminiscent of Trump’s proposed ‘day one tariffs’ as well as tariffs on Canada, Mexico and specific imports such as cars, microchips and pharmaceuticals. While there are various proposals for imposing import taxes on US consumers and businesses to penalise foreign companies and countries, there has been little real movement so far, leading investors to assume this trend will continue.
Trading recommendation: EURUSD: BUY 1.0470, SL 1.0410, TP 1.0530
Origin: FreshForex
