Australian Dollar Daily Chart
Turning to the US session, hotter-than-expected inflation figures would indicate a more hawkish Fed policy stance. Fading bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate cut may widen the US-Australia interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A more hawkish Fed could drag the AUD/USD pair toward the crucial $0.62 support level. A break below $0.62 may bring the upper trend line of the descending channel into play.
Conversely, a softer core CPI reading may narrow the interest rate differential, potentially lifting the pair above the 50-day EMA. A breakout from the 50-day EMA could enable the bulls to target the 200-day EMA next.
Meanwhile, US tariffs and the threat of a full-blown US-China trade war remain an Aussie dollar headwind.
