USD
The move by the US Fed to initiate its rate cutting cycle with a bumper 50bps cut came as a last-minute surprise last week, with the focus now turning to how the Fed will proceed from here, and what impact the move will have on other central banks. On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core-PCE will be in focus. So far this year, core-PCE has been falling slowly, easing to 2.6% in May, its lowest level since March 2021, and stayed at that level in June and July. The consensus is for core-PCE to have inched marginally higher to 2.7% in August. Fed Chair Powell) speaks on Thursday, which will be of keen interest for investors.
EUR
In the Eurozone, a raft of survey data aside from the PMIs are due, including market sentiment indices for September. Overall, the sectoral and headline metrics are projected to edge down somewhat in the month. At a national level, the German IFO business climate index is forecasted to have remained at a relatively low level in September. Likewise German consumer sentiment is expected to edge a bit higher but remain muted. Meanwhile on the inflation front, the flash readings of French and Spanish inflation for September will garner attention. A sharp decline back to 1.9% is envisaged for both regions. European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde is speaking.
GBP
In early morning trading, the Pound has held onto gains from last week after the BoE held interest rates at 5% and better than expected Retail sales figures were released on Friday.
Today sees the release of UK PMI data. The manufacturing PMI has returned to expansion territory in recent months, and moved higher in each of the last three, consistent with an acceleration in the pace of activity in the sector. Meanwhile, the services PMI remains well above the key 50 level, averaging 52.9 so far in Q3. Both PMIs are forecast to be little changed in September.
CAD
An appearance from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem fizzled out on Friday, failing to jumpstart CAD flows as the BoC Governor focused on non-monetary policy musings. Looking ahead to this week, CAD traders are facing down another quiet week with strictly mid-tier data on offer. The downside of CAD this week may be restrained due to higher crude oil prices.
