NZDUSD has been moving in a horizontal trajectory over the last two months, going back and forth around its short-term simple moving averages (SMAs). In the medium-term picture, the price is developing in a descending move, trading beneath the falling trend line and the 200-day SMA.
As regards the technical indicators, the RSI is flattening near its neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD has risen above its trigger line but is still near its zero level.
A rally higher could meet immediate resistance at the 0.7100 psychological level, which overlaps with the 200-day SMA. The down-trending line could next take action around 0.7167. More gains could lead the pair towards the 0.7313 barrier, shifting the medium-term outlook to neutral, while higher, all attention will turn to the three-and-a-half-year high of 0.7463.
On the flip side, a decline beneath the short-term SMAs would open the way towards the eight-month low of 0.6880. Any break lower from here would strengthen the negative structure, likely bringing the 0.6800 round number next into view. Steeper decreases could take the price until the 0.6510-0.6585 support zone.
Overall, NZDUSD is neutral in the short-term and bearish in the medium-term. A positive breakout above the diagonal line, and more importantly a close above the 0.7463 peak, could shift the long-term outlook back to bullish.
Origin: XM
