USDJPY’s fixed course continues to edge sideways below the steady 200-day simple moving average (SMA), squeezed by the upper and mid-Bollinger bands. The convergence in the 50- and 100-day SMAs and their flattening tone suggest that the current path may endure a while longer.
Looking at the short-term oscillators, directional momentum is non-existent. The MACD is at its zero mark barely above its red signal line, while the RSI is marginally hovering above the 50 threshold.
In the positive scenario, immediate limitations may commence from the 100-day SMA until the upper Bollinger band, which have trapped the 107.69 obstacle, that being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 101.17 to 111.71. Steering above these hurdles, the 108.16 high and the 200-day SMA overhead at 108.38 could bring the improvement to a standstill. If the bulls overrun this tough border, they may target the 23.6% Fibo of 109.22 before challenging the ceiling of the three-month range at 109.84.
Alternatively, navigating under the 50-day SMA at 107.39 and the mid-Bollinger band beneath, the price may dip towards the lower Bollinger band at 106.58 and the 50.0% Fibo of 106.44 below it. Should sellers maintain control and break the hardened floor of the consolidation at 105.98, the pair could dive for the 61.8% Fibo of 105.20 in attempts to reach the depth of 104.50.
Summarizing, a directionless market continues to overwhelm the short-term timeframe. A break either above 109.84 or below the 105.98 trough may signify the next well-defined course.