AUDUSD has been on the sidelines over the past three weeks, but is still within the three-month old ascending channel, keeping hopes alive that the positive pattern may continue. In other bullish trend news, the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) managed to post a golden cross after more than two years, further brightening the medium-term outlook.
A decisive close above the 0.7030-0.7080 restrictive area which the pair failed to successfully overcome this month could bring new buyers to the market, with resistance likely running next to 0.7200. Slightly higher, the 0.7270 level may attract special attention as this is where the 200 SMA is flattening in the weekly chart.
The above scenario is possible but weak according to the RSI which is currently trying to regain strength above its 50 neutral mark. Although flat, the red Tenkan-sen line remains above the blue Kijun-sen, somewhat endorsing the positive view too.
Yet, the price action is within breathing distance of the bottom of the channel, warning that the bears could easily take control. Hence, should the pair exit the channel through the back door, the 0.6775 barrier could immediately act as a support as it did a few weeks ago. In case it fails to do so, selling interest could pick up steam towards the 50- and 200-day SMAs currently at 0.6695 and 0.6650 respectively, while lower the spotlight may shift to 0.6500.
Summarizing, AUDUSD is looking cautiously bullish in the short-term. However, a decisive drop below the channel could eliminate upside risks, especially if the pair dives below the nearby support of 0.6775.
Origin: XM
