The aussie grew last Friday, under the general weakening of the US dollar and new rumors about the imminent resolution of US-Chinese friction. The price exceeded the indicator lines of balance (red) and MACD (blue). Even if we take this exit as false (the Marlin indicator still remains in the negative trend zone), the price has the opportunity to continue to grow to the level of 0.6832, which is a low on June 18. Consolidation above the level opens the second growth target at the price of 0.6866 – strong support of May of this year.
On the four-hour chart, the level of the first target at 0.6832 coincides with the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the price movement on October 31 – November 14, to which, in order to strengthen it, the MACD line is approaching. The level of the bulls’ second target of 0.6866 is close to the Fibonacci level of 61.8%.
So, our main scenario is the AUD/USD reversal from the nearest target of 0.6832 with the development of a new wave of decline. The probability of this scenario is determined at 60%. We will allocate a probability of 30% -35% for price growth to the level of 0.6866 and less than 10% for even greater growth (to the upper line of the price channel).
Origin: InstaForex
