The energetic yen has recently lost all its fuse and is in search of reasons for further growth. It can be inspired by previous market participants’ refusal of risky assets or a decrease in treasury profitability. There is nothing on the horizon that could push the Japanese yen and strategists have talked about the potential for lowering the quotes of the safe haven currency.
Despite the fact that economists at Goldman Sachs did not adjust their 3-month forecast for USD/JPY at 103, they do not exclude the transfer of control over the situation to the bulls. Data from the United States are mostly positive, the White House flatly refuses to talk about a possible recession in the country. Other states with problems in the economy have already responded by easing monetary policy.
Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor the situation in China, markets are also worried about the slowdown in the global economy in the context of small opportunities to reduce rates by key securities. Fears may well serve as a catalyst for the yen’s growth.
However, a similar situation took place, as noted in Goldman Sachs. Three years ago, the influence of such drivers came to naught, and ended with an increase in USD/JPY quotes by 15%.
Given the widespread support for fiscal stimulus, the prospects for global economic growth will improve. Fed officials will not need a hasty cut in rates. By the way, new measures are possible on the part of the Bank of Japan. This can be expressed as an increase in purchases of government bonds or as a revision of the yield target.
Citigroup and Credit Suisse believe that the yen retains the potential for further growth. In the next 12 months, it can rise in price to 100 yen per dollar. The last time the USD/JPY pair visited the area was in August 2016.
Currency strategists draw attention to the fact that this year the Japanese currency showed the best results among competitors from the Group of 10. In relation to the dollar, its growth amounted to 3%.
Origin: InstaForex
