GBP/USD Forecast: Uncertainty ahead Brexit referendum still weighs on moves

We’re one week ahead approximately of Brexit referendum, which will take in place on June 23th, and it seems the odds are favoring to the “Leave” option, according to the most recent polls released by media and independent agencies. The latest headline comes from a poll published during the Friday’s US session by ORB Independent, which favors the Brexit with 55% of preference, against a 45% which wants to stay at European Union. After the poll was released, GBP/USD had a decline of more than 100 pips, closing the week at 1.4253, which is telling us that the Brexit sentiment is a strong catalyst that drives the pair nowadays.

The technical picture at H4 chart is calling for a possible double cycle development on the Cable, as it reached the 100% Fibonacci extension (1.4297) from the May 3th highs (1.4685), related with the May 16th lows (1.4331) and May 26th highs (1.4738). However, pair is still doing declines below the 100%, but it hasn’t achieved in break the 1.4193 level yet. If GBP/USD does a rebound at current area, then it could test the 1.4392 in the near term, while a breakout below 1.4193, will open the doors for a fall toward 1.4025 level (161.8% Fibonacci extension).